MUCH MORE THAN OBAMA IN MOST CASES …
Now that the Trump administration has been in office for over two years, there is sufficient data to compare key economic results between Obama’s 48-month second term (2013 – 2016) and Trump’s 27-to-30-month first term (2017 – March or June 2019, depending on available information).
Contrary to 2020 Democratic candidates who falsely claim that Trump’s economic policies only benefit corporations and the wealthiest top 1% of individuals at the expense of the middle-class and minorities, we will share facts and data with you that demonstrate Trump’s policies have created:
1 – rising GDP growth
2 – record high employment and low unemployment — especially for less-skilled minority and middle-class workers
3 – higher corporate profit, leading to greater domestic investment, effecting improvements in labor productivity, resulting in higher wages — especially for less-skilled minority and middle-class workers
In the charts below, we graph Obama stats in blue and Trump stats in red. We also include trend lines when Trump’s economic performance trajectory is appreciably steeper.
GDP GROWTH
The Trump and Republican endorsed Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) has put America’s GDP growth on a dramatically steeper glide path, averaging over 3% growth per year; something Obama said only a magic wand could achieve.
JOB GROWTH
While Obama averaged more jobs per quarter than Trump, Trump’s job growth in only 10 quarters thus far is on a slightly steeper trajectory.
There are 4.7 million more people employed since Trump took office.
There are 674,000 more Blacks employed since Trump took office.
While Black unemployment was coming down at a steeper clip during Obama’s second term, Trump’s economy has resulted in the lowest Black unemployment rate on record.
There are 1.7 million more Hispanics employed since Trump took office.
While Hispanic unemployment was coming down at a steeper clip during Obama’s second term, Trump’s economy has resulted in the lowest Hispanic unemployment rate on record.
U.S. CORPORATE PROFIT, INVESTMENT & LABOR PRODUCTIVITY
U.S. corporate profit has improved under Trump … and that’s a good thing.
Trump’s tax cuts, accelerated amortization schedules and deregulations have incentivized corporations to invest substantially more of their higher earnings in fixed assets like equipment, machinery and property.
Those domestic investments have led to significant improvements in labor productivity.
WAGE GROWTH
Improved labor productivity allows corporations to pay higher wages without increasing the cost of producing their products and services. Average wages for all jobs have been steadily improving, rising 8.6% since Trump took office.
Borrowing from a recent WSJ editorial, you can see in the chart below that average hourly earnings growth in less-skilled job categories, typically dominated by minority and middle-class workers, have grown at a faster rate in Trump’s first 29 months than during Obama’s entire second term.
Black average weekly earnings have risen 9.2% since Trump took office, compared to 8.5% over Obama’s entire second term.
Black women’s average weekly earnings have risen 9.1% since Trump took office, compared to 8.9% over Obama’s entire second term.
Hispanic average weekly earnings have risen 7.2% since Trump took office, compared to 12.4% over Obama’s entire second term.
Hispanic women’s average weekly earnings have risen 5.9% since Trump took office, compared to 12.1% over Obama’s entire second term. Score one for Obama, as Trump must double the growth rate with only seven quarters to go.
FINAL REMARKS
If the economy, jobs and wages keep growing, and fair trade settlements are successfully negotiated to protect American industries and workers, 2020 Democratic candidates will be hard pressed to convince middle-class, union member and minority voters to abandon Trumponomics for slower growth, fewer jobs, stagnant wages, higher taxes, overregulation, and more government control of their lives.