ONLY TIME WILL TELL …
In the second of two Democratic primary debates on June 27, top candidates Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders all declared they would pursue these five immigration policies if elected president:
1 – Decriminalize border crossings
2 – Cease deportation of undocumented immigrants
3 – Provide universal health care to undocumented immigrants
4 – Legalize dreamers
5 – Oppose border walls
Is the New York Post prescient when lampooning these Democratic positions as crazy and the death-knell to their 2020 ambitions? Or is the Democrat pandering to the Latino community actually necessary if they have any hope of winning back the presidency and senate? Let’s explore …
First, it’s important to define the Latino population and electorate in the United States and why they are such an important voting block for Democrats and Republicans.
The nation’s Latino population stands at nearly 59 million and is one of the youngest and fastest-growing groups in the U.S.
Latino composition is also changing as the foreign-born share has fallen and U.S. births now drive growth. Overall, one-third of all Latinos are foreign born and two-thirds are U.S. born.
Among the roughly 19 million Latino immigrants, some 7.6 million are unauthorized from Mexico and Central America.
Many unauthorized immigrants have strong family ties in the United States. Forty percent of unauthorized immigrants age 15 and older were married and living with a partner during the period analyzed. Of those, 29 percent were married to a U.S. citizen, 17 percent to a legal permanent resident (also known as a green-card holder), and 53 percent to a temporary visa holder or unauthorized immigrant.
So how does this rapidly growing Latino group vote?
A record 27.3 million of Latinos were eligible to vote in 2016, up 4 million from 2012 – the largest increase of any racial or ethnic group. Hilary Clinton won 66% and Donald Trump won 28% of their votes. But Clinton’s percentage was down 5 points from President Obama’s tally in 2012. And although Trump’s percentage was essentially the same as Mitt Romney’s in 2012, it was up 10 points from what he was supposed to garner, according to one of the many incorrect polls (Latino Decisions) conducted just before the election. It can be argued then that Trump’s elevated and Clinton’s depressed performances with the Latino electorate may have been just enough to help Trump win an astonishing Electoral College victory.
In 2020, Pew Research Center estimates that 32 million Hispanics will be eligible to vote — 4.7 million more than in 2016, 2 million more than eligible black voters, and more than 13 percent of the electorate. No doubt, Latinos will play an even larger role in the outcome of the 2020 election.
So how do Latinos view Trump today? Well, in a January 2019 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, 50% approved of the job Trump is doing as president. If this poll represents reality, despite Trump’s tough stand on illegal immigration and the 93% negative and unfair press coverage of his immigration policies, then he will cruise to victory in 2020.
As reported in an article entitled “Trump’s Secret to Victory in 2020: Hispanic Voters” by Politico Magazine:
If Hispanic Americans are in fact showing surging approval of Trump, he could be on his way to matching or exceeding the 40 percent won by George W. Bush in 2004. If Trump does 12 percentage points better than his 2016 numbers with the growing Hispanic vote, it pretty much takes Florida, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina off the table for Democrats, who would need to sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to reach the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the White House. At the same time, that 12-point shift would give Trump a clear shot at winning Colorado and Nevada, states where Hispanic voters make up well over 10 percent of the electorate and where Clinton won by 5 percentage points or less in 2016.
So put yourself in the Democrats’ shoes … What policy positions would you take to secure more of the Latino vote in 2020? Answer: The policies most important to and most popular with that community, right?
Let’s go back to the Dems’ pandering policies and we’ll show you the polls driving their strategy …
POLICY # 1 – DECRIMINALIZE BORDER CROSSING
According to an October 2018 Pew Research Center report, U.S. Hispanics say immigration is one of the most important problems facing the country today.
POLICY # 2 – CEASE DEPORTATIONS
According to the same Pew Research Center report, 55% of Hispanics say they worry a lot or some that they, a family member or close friend could be deported.
POLICY # 3 – UNIVERSAL HEALTH CARE
According to the Migration Policy Institute, since implementation of the Affordable Care Act in 2014, health insurance coverage has improved for both the U.S. born and immigrants. From 2013 to 2017, the immigrant uninsured rate fell from 32 percent to 20 percent, and the rate for the native born fell from 12 percent to 7 percent. Naturally, Hispanics would be inclined to support further reductions in their uninsured via Democratic policies that either expand Obamacare or implement Medicare For All, both of which guarantee universal health care.
POLICY # 4 and # 5 – LEGALIZE DREAMERS & OPPOSE BORDER WALLS
Substantial majorities of Hispanics favor legalizing Dreamers (87%) and oppose expanding border walls (75%).
And here’s one more reason why Democrats are worried, desperate and pandering … Since the last presidential election in 2016, the share of Hispanic registered voters who say the Democratic Party has more concern for Hispanics is down six points, while the Republican share is up 3 points. Not a good trend when Democrats need to improve their performance in 2020 with this critical voting block.
Meanwhile, Democrats also find themselves challenged by President Trump’s successful economic policies, which have accelerated U.S. growth, creating five million new jobs and achieving the following positive outcomes for Hispanics:
Record Low Unemployment Rate (4.2%, May 2019)
Higher Labor Participation Rate (67%, 1Q19)
Rising Wages (up 3.4% since 4Q16)
As Politico editorialized in their aforementioned article:
None of this is to suggest that Hispanics are entering a prolonged love affair with Trump. But it does mean that the eventual Democratic nominee can’t simply assume that Hispanic voters will flock to the polls to prevent Trump’s second term. If anything, the challenge for the party looks tougher than in 2016—when it arguably cost them the White House.
We hope it’s clear now why Democrats are moving so far left in taking what appear to be risky and extreme positions — they’re reading the same polls and data we are and concluding that boldly addressing the Hispanic swing voters’ critical concerns is absolutely necessary to win in 2020.
That’s not crazy, it’s politically smart.
But will their strategy backfire by driving away as many or more moderate and independent votes as additional Hispanic votes acquired?
Who knows … that’s why they play the game.