NEXT STEPS FOR BORDER SECURITY, IMMIGRATION, AND 2020 ELECTION

A REALISTIC AND PRAGMATIC PLAN …

Nothing was gained by the partial government shutdown, except for the Democrats revealing their game plan on border security, immigration reform and the 2020 election.

Here’s a temporal summary of Democrat positions during the shutdown and their likely strategy going forward:

12/22/18 … No wall $, force government shut down

01/25/19 … No wall $ or TPS/DACA relief, force government to reopen

02/15/19 … No wall $ or TPS/DACA relief, force executive action

03/??/19 … District court judge will declare nationwide stay on executive action

11/03/20 … No wall, No TPS/DACA relief, No repeal & replacement of Obamacare

Your probable questions and our humble answers:

Q1: Why won’t there be a compromise on border security and immigration in the next three weeks?

A1: Because Democrats want Trump’s failures to deliver on key campaign promises — no ‘immoral’ wall, no so-called ‘anti-immigration’ policies, no ‘repeal and replacement’ of Obamacare — to be front and center in the 2020 election.

Q2: Why will Trump take executive action on the wall rather than shut down the government again?

A2: Because shutting down the government is not politically savvy and Trump has lost his leverage.

Public opinion polls taken during the recent government shutdown showed that Trump was primarily to blame and the shutdown was a bigger problem than border security.

Q3: When will government fix our border security and immigration problems?

A3: When the crisis gets worse, more people see additional walls and / or barriers as a necessary component of enhanced border security, and the GOP coalition is stronger.

A plurality of all voters say the U.S. is facing a crisis on the southern border, but only 19% of Democrats and 37% of Independents agree.

Currently, 51% oppose and 43% favor building a wall to deal with the humanitarian and security crisis at the U.S. – Mexico border.

The GOP coalition in favor of wall funding is weaker than the Democrat coalition opposing it. Six GOP senators voted “yes” to end the shutdown without wall funding and only one Democrat voted “yes” to end the shutdown with wall funding.

Q4: Now that the government has reopened, isn’t this an excellent opportunity for Democrats and Republicans to compromise on a grand bargain that includes both wall funding and immigration reform?

A4: No, there are too many hardliners on both sides to achieve a compromise. The far left will oppose border security with wall funding and any policy changes that limit immigration (e.g., elimination of chain migration). The far right will oppose border security without wall funding and any policy changes that amount to amnesty (e.g., pathway to citizenship for 1.8 million DACA and 11 million adult illegal aliens already in U.S.).

Q5: So what do you think President Trump should do?

A5: At this moment in time, Trump does not have sufficient leverage from either the border crisis, the majority of American people, the Congress or the judiciary to get everything he wants to secure the border and reform immigration. However, his base will not abandon him if he takes executive action to implement his reasonable but unrequited proposal to the Democrats — Build 200+ additional miles of border wall and extend TPS and DACA relief for three years. Even when these lawful actions are subsequently thwarted by a liberal activist judge, and the opposition media paints the stay as yet another defeat, intelligent voters will know that Trump made a reasonable attempt to compromise and did everything he could to uphold his pledge to his base and the American people.

That, plus a myriad of economic and foreign policy accomplishments, two (or three?) conservative Supreme Court justices, and, most importantly, a long past due GOP replacement for Obamacare, will ensure re-election.