As promised, we’re following up on our earlier post on the polls, to bring you the 2018 Mid-Term election results in our top ten House, Senate and Governor races compared with the latest pre-election poll predictions.
In the far right column of our charts below, we note the winner and their win margin.
If either the poll’s projected winner was incorrect (i.e., the opposite party won) or if margin of win was greater than 3 points, we added a strike-out oval indicating the poll got it wrong.
The statistical results:
- House Polls: 50% wrong; with 3 GOP flips; and two poll prediction ties were won by the GOP candidate by an average of 7 points.
- Senate Polls: 50% wrong; with 4 GOP flips
- Governor Polls: 70% wrong; with 2 GOP and 1 DEM flips
So, despite using FiveThirtyEight’s highest rated pollsters, the polls were mostly wrong, with a significant DEM bias.
Voter beware!
