During the last U.S. presidential campaign, candidate Donald Trump famously cajoled African American voters to break their decades long habit of voting monolithically for Democrat politicians. “You’re living in poverty, your schools are no good, you have no jobs, 58% of your youth is unemployed — What the hell do you have to lose? Give me a chance. I’ll straighten it out,” he said.
Even though an NBC News ‘fake news’ poll at the time predicted Trump would win only 1% of the black vote, he actually won 8% … 2% more than Mitt Romney received in his 2012 loss to Barrack Obama. But that means a whopping 92% of black voters didn’t cast their ballot for Trump.
Even though the Trump Administration and Republican controlled Congress have been in office together for only 21 months, we wanted to see how well the Black community has faired thus far on those four measures of social well being the president cited in his campaign speech. As you will see below, Trump and the GOP Congress have done well. However, the disproportionate disadvantages that African Americans experience, compared with other races, cannot be addressed adequately without sustained, multi-year improvements in policy and drastically different behaviors in the Black community itself.
For reference purposes, there are approximately 43.5 million African Americans or 13.4% of the total U.S. population.
Now a look at those four measures …
POVERTY
According to the United States Census Bureau, the number of Blacks below the poverty line decreased from 9,244,000 in 2016 to 8,993,000 in 2017, an improvement of 241,000 people or 2.6%. Given the very strong Trump and GOP led economy, historically low black unemployment, rising wages and lower taxes, the 2018 numbers are expected to be better.
However, the high correlation between poverty and Black families headed by single mothers is a behavioral issue the African American community must address. Certainly, policy makers continuing to create more and better paying jobs will help Black men and women make better life decisions. But the Success Sequence — finish high school, get a job and get married before having children — would help most of today’s youth avoid the high illegitimacy, joblessness and poverty rates that has plagued them for decades and steer them toward the middle class.
SCHOOLS
Education is one of the best predictors of a person’s earnings. Here’s a look at the 2017 v. 2016 education attainment performance for Black 18 – 24-year-olds:
We see only modest improvement in the attainment of Associates and Bachelor degrees, but improvement nonetheless.
The bigger problem that will take years to correct is the disparity in the percentage of college graduates between Blacks and other races.
The Trump Administration recognizes our Nation’s elementary and secondary education systems are key to correcting this problem. Quoting President Trump, “My Administration supports an agenda that provides school choice for parents, better prepares students to compete in a global economy, modernizes an antiquated federal student aid system, and holds higher education institutions more accountable to students and taxpayers alike.” Additionally, the Administration is committed to investing in Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCU) to help ensure they can educate future generations of American students. Earlier this year, President Trump signed into law legislation that increased Federal funding to important HBCU programs by more than 14 percent.
JOBS
in 2016 there were 17,982,000 Black men and women employed, compared with 19,272,000 currently employed in 2018, a net improvement of 7.2%. As one can see in the chart below, the combination of a Republican majority in the House and Senate and nearly two years of Trump Administration pro-growth policies have caused Black employment to rise meteorically, culminating in 2018’s historical highs. This is one of the Republicans’ proudest achievements.
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT
The Black youth (ages 16 – 24) unemployed number of 58% that Trump mentioned in his 2016 speech is actually derived from what the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calls the employment-to-population-ratio. The equivalent 2018 black youth unemployed percentage is 53%, a net improvement of 5%. The actual Black youth unemployment rate (number of unemployed persons / labor force) has decreased from 20.6% in 2016 to 16.5% in 2018, which represents an all-time record low.
Still, black youth unemployment has historically been double the national average.
This disproportionate unemployment situation has destructive effects on mental health. As PsychologyBenefits.org warns, “Now more than ever, it is important for both psychologists and policymakers to recognize and address this aspect of our nation’s workforce.” They list ways in which we can act now to improve employment and mental health outcomes for Black millennial males:
- Prioritize a broad educational opportunity agenda through investments in job training, vocational education and higher education.
- Increase the number of apprenticeship, mentorship, and college advising options to create employment pathways.
- Improve summer job initiatives to teach valuable skills and provide structure.
- Advance public policies to address discrimination and implicit bias in both educational settings and the workplace.
- Support legislation that increases the upward social mobility of black families and ensures equal protection under the law.
The Trump Administration is on top of this. In June 2017, as reported in Fortune Magazine, “President Trump signed an executive order to substantially increase the number of U.S. apprenticeships from the then current 500,000 (minuscule for the size of the economy) by doubling the amount the government spends on apprenticeship programs.” Trump aims to create 5 million new and high quality apprenticeships in the economy, which will make great progress toward addressing Black millennial job woes.
Bottom Line: The Trump Administration and GOP Congress are keeping their promise to make all of America great again. Under their leadership, the black community has benefited from their policies. America is enjoying a booming economy, record unemployment, increasing job opportunities, rising wages, tame inflation and lower taxes. And it’s only going to get better after more trade deals are improved, regulations are reduced and tax cuts are made permanent … but only if voters afford GOP lawmakers the majority required to continue their work.
So, Black America, what the hell do you have to lose? Sure there’s room for improvement, but we’re on a roll so let’s keep it going. Voting Republican on November 6 is voting for a brighter future in the African American community.